昨天,我躺在床上刷手机,看到巴菲特在1985年接受的一个访谈。那时候巴菲特正好55岁,已经积累了很多财富,但在美国的知名度还是比较一般。

这个视频里的很多道理,价投们估计都听过很多遍了,但是听巴菲特亲自说出来,还是很震撼。


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一方面巴菲特语速非常快,并且非常自信,另一方面很多我们看到的版本都是后期加工过了,做了删减。而这个访谈则是完整还原了巴菲特对投资的理解和认识,看完会有更深刻的理解。

我把视频里面的内容完整的还原了一遍,翻译的内容做了校对,如下文,感兴趣的朋友也可以直接拉到文章最后看英文的原文。

让我们以内布拉斯加州奥马哈市的沃伦·巴菲特为例。如果你在1965年向他的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司投资1万美元,今天你会有100万美元。沃伦是我1972年的书《超级金钱》中的一章,所以我认识他很久了。他从哥伦比亚大学证券分析系主任本.格雷厄姆那里学到了交易技巧。

我认为在这次采访之前,沃伦从来没有上过电视,他当然也从来没有追求过曝光率,但最近当他作为Capital Cities收购ABC的关键人物时,他得到了很多曝光率。沃伦将是新公司的最大股东,他自己的净资产现在远远超过5亿美元。

去年秋天,当我在他位于奥马哈的办公室与他交谈时,他的投资风格看起来非常简单,这是他非常典型地投资风格。

投资的首要原则是:不要亏损。投资的第二条规则是:不要忘记第一条规则。这就是所有的规则。

沃伦,你认为投资经理最重要的品质是什么?

这是气质上的品质,不是智力上的品质,干这行不需要很高的智商。我的意思是,你必须有足够的智商才能从这里到奥马哈市中心,但你不必会玩国际象棋,也不必在桥牌或诸如此类的事情上名列前茅。你需要一个稳定的性格,一种既不从众也不反众的气质,因为这不是一个可以投票的行业,而是一个需要你深度思考的行业。

本.格雷厄姆会说,即使有一千个人同意你,也并不代表你对了或者错了。当然,也不会因为一千个人反对你,就说明你是对了或者错了。事实上,你是对的的唯一原因,是因为你的事实和推理是对的。

沃伦,你做了什么与市场上90%的基金经理不同的事情?

大多数专业投资者关注的是股票在未来一两年内的走势,他们看上去总是有各种神秘的方法来接近这一点。

他们(指投资者,或者说是企业的股东)并不真正认为自己拥有企业的一部分。对你是否从价值角度进行投资的一个测试是,你在乎股市明天开盘吗?如果你对一种证券进行了很好的投资,那么即使股市关闭了五年也不会有什么影响。

所有的股票行情显示器告诉我的只是价格。我偶尔看看股价,看看价格是低得离谱还是高得离谱,但价格并不能告诉我任何关于一家企业的信息。

商业数据本身能告诉我一些关于企业的信息,但股票价格并不能告诉我任何关于企业的信息。我宁愿一开始根本不知道一家公司的股价是多少,直接从评估一只股票或一家企业的价值开始,这样我在给企业估值的时候就不会受到价格的影响,然后我再看价格,看我对它的估值是不是有很大的差距。

巴菲特选择留在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈,那里的玉米生长地离市中心只有几分钟的路程。奥马哈是个不错的城市,但却不是金融中心。

你不觉得奥马哈离投资圈太远了点吗?

好吧,信不信由你,我在这里收发邮件,定期拿到期刊,在这里完全可以得到所有对做决定有帮助的东西。

而且,不像华尔街,在这里不会总是有人走过来在我的耳边小声告诉我今天下午应该做这个或那个。

呆在奥马哈有点单调乏味、缺乏刺激,你乐在其中吗?

确实如此啊,我喜欢这种没有任何刺激的感觉。我们在这里只是获得各种事实,不会有乱七八糟的刺激。

怎么样才能保持远离华尔街呢?

如果我一直待在华尔街,我可能会比现在穷一些。在华尔街受到的各种刺激太多也太过了。如果你获得了太多的信息,你就会很短视,而短视对获得长期收益是有害的。

在这里,我可以只关注企业的价值。我不需要亲自赶到华盛顿去计算《华盛顿邮报》的价值,也不需要去纽约计算其他公司的价值。很简单……这仅仅是一个智力过程,在这过程中,思考的越多,动作做的越少,你的表现就越好。

那么你刚才说的“智力过程”又是什么呢?

所谓的智力过程就是确定你在评估企业方面的能力范围。然后,在这个能力范围内,找到相对于价值来说最便宜的东西。

当然,有各种各样我没有能力去估值的东西,但没关系,只要有几个我能够有信心的去估值就可以了。

你投资过科技公司吗?

我从来没买过。

你投资生涯30年从来没买过吗?

是啊,因为这些科技公司,我一个都理解不了。

就这个原因,所以你从来没买过吗?难道说IBM你也没买过?

IBM是一家了不起的公司,但是我从来没买过。

这是一场正在进行的技术革命,你难道不想成为参与者吗?

我就让自己错过好了,对我来说这没什么遗憾的。我不需要在每一场比赛中都挣钱,我不知道可可豆能做什么,很多事情我都不知道,这可能听起来很糟糕,但我为什么要知道所有的一切呢?有些东西对我来说实在是太难了。

在证券行业,美国几乎有成千上万家大公司每天都在以变化的价格向你报价,你不必做任何决定。没有什么是强加给你的。

这个行业没有所谓的罢工,投手只是站在那里向你投球。

如果你在打真正的棒球,而且是球击在你的膝盖和肩膀之间,你要么挥棒,要么就被叫去击球。如果失败多次,你就出局了。

但是在证券行业,他们把美国钢铁抛到25,把通用汽车抛到16,你坐在那里,并不需要向他们中的任何一个挥棒。它们可能是很棒的挥杆场地,但是如果你知道的不够多,你就不必挥杆。你可以坐在那里观看成千上万的投球,最终在你想要的地方找到一个,然后你就可以挥杆了。

所以你可以连续六个月没有动作,不买和不卖?

我可以两年都保持不买和不卖的状态。

那不会太无聊了吗?

它会让大多数人感到无聊,而且无聊肯定是大多数职业基金经理会碰到的问题。很多时候,如果他们坐了一两局(保持不买和不卖的状态),不仅他们自己有点坐立不安,而且他们的客户就会开始在看台上大喊,“摇摆你的屁股”。

所以保持坐在那里不动的状态,很多人是做不到的。

你的这个方法看起来很简单啊,为什么很多人都做不到呢?

我认为部分原因是因为它太简单了。例如,商学院的各种金融教授关注各种变量。他们关注的是,如果你在周二买入股票,在周五卖出,你收益是否会更好。或者,如果你在选举年买入,在其他年份卖出,你的情况是不是会更好。或者你收购小公司,投资回报会不会更好。

这些金融教授就看这些数据和变量,他们就学习如何处理数据。

我的一个朋友(指查理芒格)说,对于一个拿着锤子的人来说,任何东西看起来都像钉子。一旦你掌握了这些技能,你就会渴望以某种方式利用它们。但实际上它们并不重要。

如果我被要求参与一个商业机会,我是在星期二还是星期六还是选举年或其他时候购买它会有什么不同吗?这不是一个商人在购买企业时所考虑的。那么为什么买股票的时候要考虑呢?因为股票只是商业的一部分。

以下为原文:

Warren Buffett on Adam Smith"s Money World

Warren Buffett made an appearance on Adam Smith"s Money World in 1985. Adam Smith is the author of The Money Game and Supermoney. He"s also George Goodman"s pen name.

Buffett has shared his investment wisdom for decades. He"s been repeating some version of it since he learned it from Ben Graham.

Timeless concepts like capital preservation, temperament over IQ, buying good value, circle of competence, and how stocks are a portion of a business not a piece of paper are covered.

If you"ve heard Buffett"s mantra before, this won"t be new to you but the reminder is worth it. Take the time to read the transcript below.

***

George Goodman [narrator]: Others with a more secular approach who have also been very successful. Let"s take Warren Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska. If you would put $10,000 in 1965 into his company Berkshire Hathaway, you would have one million today. Warren was a chapter in my 1972 book Supermoney, so I"ve known him a long time. He learned his trade with Ben Graham the original dean of security analysis at Columbia University.

I don"t think Warren has ever been on television until this interview, and he is certainly never courted publicity, but recently he got a lot of it when he emerged as the key figure in the takeover of ABC by Capital Cities. Warren will be the largest shareholder of the new company and his own net worth is now far in excess of $500 million.

But when I spoke with him last fall in his office in Omaha, he very characteristically made his investment style seem so perfectly simple.

Warren Buffett: The first rule of an investment is: Don"t lose. And the second rule of investment is: Don"t forget the first rule. And that"s all the rules there are.

I mean, if you buy things for far below what they"re worth, and you buy a group of them, you basically don"t lose money.

Goodman: Warren, what do you consider the most important quality for an investment manager?

Buffett: It"s the temperamental quality, not an intellectual quality. You don"t need tons of IQ in this business. I mean, you have to have enough IQ to get from here to downtown Omaha, but you do not have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or be in the top leagues in terms of bridge playing or something of the sort. You need a stable personality. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd because this is not a business where you take polls, it"s a business where you think.

And Ben Graham would say that you"re not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you. And you"re not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you. You"re right because your facts and your reasoning are right.

Goodman: Warren, what do you do that"s different than ninety percent of the money managers who are in the market?

Buffett: Certainly most of the professional investors focus on what the stock is likely to do in the next year or two and they have all kinds of arcane methods of approaching that.

They do not really think of themselves as owning a piece of a business. The real test of whether you"re investing from a value standpoint or not, is whether you care whether the stock market is open tomorrow. If you"re making a good investment in a security, it shouldn"t bother if they closed down the stock market for five years.

All the ticker tells me is the price. And I can look at the price occasionally to see whether the price is outlandishly cheap or outlandishly high but prices don"t tell me anything about a business.

Business figures themselves tell me something about a business but the price of a stock doesn"t tell me anything about a business. I would rather value a stock or a business first, and not even know the price, so that I"m not influenced by the price in establishing my valuation and then look at the price later to see whether it"s way out of line with what my value is.

Goodman [narrator]: So Buffett chose to stay in this world, Omaha, Nebraska, where corn grows just minutes from downtown. Now, Omaha is a nice town but nobody claimed it"s the world financial center. Here, the only thundering herd is actually on four feet.

Don"t you find Omaha a little bit off the beaten track for the investment world?

Buffett: Well, believe it or not, we get mail here and we get periodicals and we get all the facts needed to make decisions.

And, unlike Wall Street, you"ll notice we don"t have fifty people coming up and whispering in our ear that we should be doing this or that this afternoon.

Goodman: You appreciate the lack of stimulus here?

Buffett: I like the lack of stimulation. We get facts, not stimulation here.

Goodman: How can you stay away from Wall Street?

Buffett: Well, if I were on Wall Street, I"d probably be a lot poorer. You get overstimulated on Wall Street. And you hear lots of things. And you may shorten your focus and a short focus is not conducive to long profits.

And here I can just focus on what businesses are worth. And I don"t need to be in Washington to figure out what the Washington Post newspaper is worth. And I don"t need to be in New York to figure out what some other company is worth. It"s simple… It"s an intellectual process and the less static there is in an intellectual process, really, the better off you are.

Goodman: What is the intellectual process?

Buffett: The intellectual process is defining your level…defining your area of competence in valuing businesses. And then, within that area of competence, finding whatever sells at the cheapest price in relation to value.

And there are all kinds of things I"m not competent to value. There are a few that I am confident to value.

Goodman: Have you ever bought a technology company?

Buffett: No, I really haven"t.

Goodman: In thirty years of investing, not one?

Buffett: I haven"t understood any of em.

Goodman: So you haven"t ever owned, for example, IBM?

Buffett: Never owned IBM. Marvelous company. I mean, a sensational company. But I haven"t owned IBM.

Goodman: And so, here is this technological revolution going on and you"re not gonna be a participant.

Buffett: Gone right past me.

Goodman: Is that alright with you?

Buffett: It"s okay with me. I don"t have to make money in every game. I mean, I don"t know what cocoa beans are gonna do. There are all kinds of things I don"t know about, and that may be too bad, but you know, why should I know all about it — haven"t worked that hard on it.

In securities business, you literally every day have thousands of the major American corporations offered you at a price that changes daily and you don"t have to make any decision. Nothing is forced upon you.

There are no called strikes in the business. The pitcher just stands there and throws balls at you. And if you"re playing real baseball, and it"s between the knees and the shoulders, you either swing or you got a strike called on you. If you get too many called on you, you"re out.

In the securities business, you sit there and they throw U.S. Steel at 25 and they throw General Motors at 16. You don"t have to swing at any of them. They may be wonderful pitches to swing at but if you don"t know enough, you don"t have to swing. And you can sit there and watch thousands of pitches and finally get one right there where you wanted something that you understand and then you swing.

Goodman: So you might not swing for six months?

Buffett: Might not swing for two years.

Goodman: Isn"t that boring?

Buffett: It will bore most people and certainly boredom is a problem with most professional money managers. If they sit out an inning or two, not only do they get somewhat antsy, but their clients start yelling, “Swing you bum,” from the stands. And that"s very tough for people to do.

Goodman: Warren, your approach seems so simple, why doesn"t everybody do it?

Buffett: Well I think partly because it is so simple. The academics, for example, focus on all kinds of variables partly because…

Goodman: By academics, you mean professors in finance in business school?

Buffett: Right. The data is there. So they focus on whether if you buy stocks on Tuesday and sell them on Friday, you"re better off. Or if you buy em in an election year and sell em in other years, you"re better off. Or if you buy small companies. There are all these variables because the data are there. And they learn how to manipulate data.

And as a friend of mine says, to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail. And once you have these skills, you just are dying to utilize them in some way. But they aren"t important.

If I were being asked to participate in a business opportunity, would it make any difference to me whether I bought it on a Tuesday or a Saturday or an election year or something? It"s not what a businessman thinks about in buying businesses. So why think about it when buying stocks? Because stocks are just pieces of businesses.

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