重点：貌似业内情绪开始逆转了？？为啥除了股东唉声叹气之外船司都在买买买，租租租。。。。莫不成MSC真的要成为大赢家？

市场对后续运价的预期决定了租赁费高低，而租赁费高低又会影响短期拆解的数量多少，这也是3月拆船数量促减大大低于预期的原因，但是长期三五年而言该拆的一个都跑不掉，环保新规的约束在那里 。五年内占比33.6%的老旧船都将变成超过20年这些船因为低碳原因百分百都得被拆掉毋庸置疑。

April 7, 2023 2023年4月7日

(相关资料图)

By Mike Wackett (The Loadstar) – 迈克·瓦科特(The Loadstar) -

More optimistic demand forecasts and the prospect of a better peak season this year are driving a containership charter market rally, with aggressive carriers still snapping-up tonnage as it becomes open. 更乐观的需求预测以及今年旺季好转的前景，正推动集装箱船租赁市场上涨，随着集装箱船开航，积极进取的承运商仍在抢购吨位。

According to a recent survey of supply chain professionals by logistics platform Container xChange, 48% of respondents believe this year’s peak season will be better than last year’s. 物流平台Container xChange最近对供应链专业人士进行的一项调查显示，48%的受访者认为今年的旺季将比去年更好。

Container xChange co-founder and CEO Christian Roeloffs said industry sentiment was “gradually turning positive” and added: “We anticipate a subdued rebound in demand as retailers begin to deplete their excess stock in the coming months, leading up to the peak season.” Container xChange联合创始人兼首席执行官Christian roeloff表示，行业情绪“逐渐转向积极”，并补充说:“我们预计需求将出现温和反弹，因为零售商将在未来几个月开始耗尽他们的过剩库存，导致旺季到来。”

And carriers are hearing positive news from their major shippers that purchase orders, to replenish old stock and buy in new season lines, are starting to trickle through. 航运公司也从主要货主那里听到了积极的消息，即补充旧库存和购买新季货物的采购订单开始陆续到位。

“I think we are over the worst,” a UK-based carrier contact told The Loadstarthis week. “我认为我们已经度过了最糟糕的时期，”一位英国航空公司的联系人本周告诉《Loadstar》。

Awash with cash and eager to capture market share, the container lines have gone back to the charter market to boost their capacity and Alphaliner said this week activity in the market “remained high”, with “demand strong across the board”. 这些集装箱航运公司现金充裕，急于夺取市场份额，它们已重返包租市场，以提高运力。Alphaliner本周表示，市场活动“仍然很高”，“需求全面强劲”。

Indeed, daily hire rates are on the increase in all containership sizes, with owners demanding a minimum 12-month charter period as well as positioning compensation. 事实上，所有集装箱船的日租金都在上涨，船东要求至少12个月的租期以及定位补偿。

For example, Japanese ocean carrier ONE has just agreed a two-year charter for the 2008-built 6,350 teu Brightonat a rate of $32,500 a day, from 17 May. This is only slightly below the $35,000 previous charterer Wan Hai was paying for a two-year fixture during the demand boom. 例如，日本海运公司ONE刚刚同意从5月17日起租用2008年建造的6350标箱的“布莱顿”号，租金为每天3.25万美元，为期两年。这一价格仅略低于需求旺盛时期万海租船人为两年租约支付的3.5万美元。

The market seems to be dominated by enquiries from MSC and CMA CGM, which are continuing where they left off when the downturn hit, hoovering-up any open tonnage on the charter market, and prepared to wave their chequebooks at owners that might be interested in selling ships. 市场似乎被MSC和CMA CGM的询盘所主导，这两家公司仍在继续他们在经济低迷时停止的工作，在租船市场上收购任何开放的吨位，并准备向可能有兴趣出售船只的船东挥舞支票簿。

Alphaliner noted that MSC had “snapped-up another six vessels in the past days”, including two 1999-built 5,300 teu ships from rival carrier Evergreen that were expected to be sold for demolition. Alphaliner指出，地中海航运“过去几天又收购了6艘船”，其中包括两艘1999年建造的5300标箱船，它们来自竞争对手长荣，原预计将被出售拆除。

The recent acquisitions takes MSC’s colossal buying spree of second-hand container tonnage to more than 300 ships since August 2020, resulting in an operating fleet capacity of 4.8m teu, close to 1m teu more than its 2M partner, Maersk. 最近的收购使MSC自2020年8月以来疯狂购买二手集装箱吨位的船只达到300多艘，运营船队容量达到480万teu，比其200万teu的合作伙伴马士基(Maersk)高出近100万teu。

Moreover, the Geneva-based carrier has a huge orderbook of 1.7m teu, compared with the 370,000 teu ordered by Maersk. 此外，这家总部位于日内瓦的航运公司有170万teu的庞大订单，而马士基的订单只有37万teu。

CMA CGM is the second-most active carrier in the S&P market, having bought 100 second-hand ships since 2020, taking its operating fleet capacity to 3.4m teu, which, with its orderbook of nearly 1m teu, will see the French carrier threaten Maersk’s second place in the global carrier rankings. CMA CGM是标普市场上第二活跃的航运公司，自2020年以来购买了100艘二手船，使其运营船队运力达到340万teu，加上其近100万teu的订单量，这家法国航运公司将威胁马士基(Maersk)在全球航运公司排名中的第二名。

$东方海外国际(00316)$$中远海控(01919)$$中远海控(SH601919)$